For Scientists

Hypothesis

Scientific Reasoning

Formulate hypotheses, design experiments, analyze results. Apply the scientific method.

The Transformation

Before scenario
(Coming soon)

After transformation
(Coming soon)

See It In Action

Scenario: “Do users actually prefer the new checkout flow? Let's test it.”

Conclusion

Supported

Confidence:

72%

ID: checkout-flow-preference-001

Iteration: 3

Checkout abandonment rate increased from 32% to 41% after the last release. Exit surveys mention 'too many steps'. Average checkout time increased by 23 seconds, with mobile devices showing 48% abandonment.

Statement

Users who experience the new streamlined single-page checkout flow will show higher completion rates and satisfaction scores compared to the legacy multi-step checkout process.

Domain

UX/E-commerce

Alternative ToH-checkout-baseline

Variables

VariableTypeOperationalization

checkout_flow_versionindependentBinary assignment: new single-page flow vs. legacy multi-step flow

completion_ratedependentPercentage of users who complete purchase after adding to cart

satisfaction_scoredependentPost-purchase NPS score on 0-10 scale

device_typecontrolledDesktop vs. mobile, kept equal distribution across groups

user_experience_levelconfoundingNew vs. returning users - may affect results independently

Design

A/B randomized controlled trial with 50/50 traffic split between new checkout flow (treatment) and legacy checkout (control)

Methodology

Random assignment at user level with 14-day test duration. Measure completion rates, time-to-checkout, and post-purchase NPS scores. Statistical significance threshold: p < 0.05 with 95% statistical power.

Predictions

IFUsers prefer the new checkout flow

THENCompletion rates will increase by at least 5% with statistical significance

ELSENo significant difference or decrease in completion rates

IFThe new flow reduces cognitive load

THENAverage checkout time will decrease by at least 15%

IFUser satisfaction improves

THENNPS scores will increase by at least 0.5 points

Hypothesis SUPPORTED. Single-page checkout significantly reduces abandonment (12pp reduction vs. 8pp threshold). Recommend immediate full rollout to mobile users with 30-day monitoring period. The unexpected 8% cart value increase warrants further investigation as a potential secondary benefit.